A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
